One in four Catalans to be over 65 by 2035

Catalonia is on track to have nearly two million residents aged 65 and over by 2035, according to demographic projections from the Institut d'Estadística de Catalunya (Idescat). The medium scenario forecasts 1,989,415 people in this age group, 23.2% of the total population, up from 1,599,535, or 19.7%, in 2025. This represents an increase of almost 390,000 older residents over ten years. By 2030, the number is projected to reach 1,782,832, or 21.2% of the population, indicating a steady shift toward an ageing society.

These estimates paint a picture of progressive ageing, not a sudden shift.

Population growth alongside ageing

The ageing trend coincides with overall population growth. Idescat projects Catalonia will have 8,585,260 inhabitants by 2035, up from 8,112,958 in 2025. The demographic structure for 2035 is expected to include:

  • 1,062,888 minors under 16
  • 5,532,957 people aged 16 to 64
  • 1,989,415 aged 65 and over

This shift has implications for public services, healthcare, and long-term care planning.

Greater ageing in smaller municipalities

The impact will be uneven across regions. Projections suggest rural areas will face more pronounced ageing. By 2035, municipalities with fewer than 500 residents could have 29.7% of their population aged 65 or over, while those with 501 to 2,000 residents may reach 26.2%, both above the regional average of 23.2%. This raises concerns about access to healthcare, social services, and home support in less populated areas, where infrastructure and staffing may be limited.

Projections based on key demographic factors

Idescat's figures are based on three scenarios, low, medium, and high, accounting for changes in fertility, life expectancy, and migration. The high scenario projects 2,053,912 residents over 65 by 2035, while the low scenario estimates 1,922,672.

Reaching a certain age does not necessarily imply being in a state of dependency. Care needs are conditioned by health status, personal autonomy, and other factors.

Despite the range, all scenarios confirm a growing proportion of older people. The Generalitat’s 2024 Annual Report of the Catalan Economy notes sustained net migration and a gradual rise in fertility as factors influencing long-term population trends. The data are intended to guide policy on healthcare staffing, social care coordination, and infrastructure development across urban and rural municipalities.

Sources: CatalunyaPress, Generalitat de Catalunya, idescat.cat, catalunyapress.cat.