Video: @catalunyaac / IG
A recent poll published by La Vanguardia on Sunday, 4 October 2026, projects Aliança Catalana (AC) to achieve 30 seats in the Parliament of Catalonia, a substantial increase from its current two deputies. This places AC in a statistical tie with the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC), which is forecast to drop from 42 to 30 seats, according to an Ipsos survey conducted between 23 September and 1 October 2026 [S1, S2, S3]. Political scientists Jesús Palomar and Xavier Torrens attribute this rise to a climate of discontent, polarisation, and what they describe as disinformation. Torrens, author of Salvar Catalunya, suggests AC is on a "fast track" of ascent, similar to movements seen in Italy and Portugal [S1].
Factors Driving AC's Growth
Torrens identifies both internal and external factors contributing to Aliança Catalana's accelerated growth. Internally, he highlights Sílvia Orriols' charisma and an "attractive national-populist" discourse that blends "radical nationalism" with a narrative of "the authentic people against the elites." The party also employs "successful use of polarisation" on social media and maintains a mobilised membership base [S1]. Externally, Torrens points to a global trend of rising populist parties and the inactive status of key pro-independence leaders, such as Carles Puigdemont's exile and Oriol Junqueras' disqualification. He also notes that systematic opposition and street protests against Orriols have inadvertently amplified her message through social media. Additionally, the continuous publication of favourable polls creates a "snowball effect," further boosting electoral expectations for AC [S1].
Impact on Traditional Parties and Future Governability
The poll results suggest a highly fragmented Parliament, making governability challenging [S2, S3]. The current progressive majority, which elevated Salvador Illa with support from the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Comuns, would no longer be viable, falling short by eight seats [S3]. ERC is projected to increase its seats from 20 to 23, while Junts per Catalunya (Junts) is expected to see a significant decline, from 35 to 16 deputies [S1, S2]. Vox is also forecast to gain, rising from 11 to 18 seats [S1, S2]. Palomar notes that Junts voters are particularly receptive to Orriols' message, leading to pressure on Carles Puigdemont's party to "mark its territory" by adopting more pro-independence and right-wing stances to prevent voter migration to AC [S1]. Torrens suggests that actions such as certain votes in Madrid help Junts cultivate an "anti-system" image that may partially stem voter transfers [S1].
Municipal Elections as a Litmus Test
Future municipal elections will serve as a critical test for Aliança Catalana's sustained growth. Palomar cautions that without Orriols as the sole spokesperson, the party's discourse may face "problems of discursive coherence" across different municipalities due to the need to present numerous candidacies [S1]. Torrens indicates that the party's success in these local elections will be primarily measured by two outcomes: whether AC secures an absolute majority in Ripoll and whether it overtakes Junts in Barcelona. Failure in either of these objectives could temper expectations for the subsequent Catalan parliamentary elections, he predicts [S1].
Elsewhere in Catalonia on Catalan.News: Updated: Aliança Catalana set for 30 seats in poll and Aliança Catalana Challenges Mosque Move in L’Estartit.
Primary sources: Ajuntament de L'Hospitalet. Reported by elmon.cat, Europa Press, À.G, elconfidencial.com, en.ara.cat, elnacional.cat, ground-news-web-7h2b0ztb.fctl.app, que.es, LGI.
