Aliança Catalana and PSC neck and neck
A new poll published on Sunday 4 October 2026 suggests Aliança Catalana could overtake the PSC in the next Catalan parliamentary election, with both parties projected to win 30 seats. The survey, conducted by Ipsos for La Vanguardia between 23 September and 1 October, indicates a dramatic shift in voter intention. While the PSC remains slightly ahead in vote share, its support has fallen from 42 to 30 seats compared to the current composition of the Parliament. Aliança Catalana, currently holding only two seats, would see a dramatic rise to 30 if an election were held today.
Fragmented parliament, governance concerns
The poll forecasts a deeply fragmented legislature, raising concerns about governability. ERC is projected to gain three seats, rising from 20 to 23, while Vox would increase from 11 to 18. Junts, once the largest pro-independence party, would suffer a sharp decline from 35 to just 16 seats, falling behind both Vox and ERC. The PP would drop from 15 to 11 seats, Comuns from 6 to 4, and the CUP from 4 to 3. The combined left-wing bloc, PSC, ERC, Comuns and CUP, would total 60 seats, eight short of an absolute majority. Although pro-independence parties together would hold 72 seats, deep divisions between factions make coalition-building unlikely. Conservative and right-wing forces, including Aliança Catalana, Vox, Junts and PP, would collectively hold 75 seats, but ideological differences between unionist and separatist wings would likely block any alliance.
Leaders’ ratings and political context
Public approval of the current government has declined, with positive assessments down nine points over the past year. Support remains concentrated among PSC voters. Gabriel Rufián, ERC’s spokesperson in Madrid, is the only political leader to receive a net positive rating in the survey. The poll does not reflect any potential impact from recent housing decree protests, as fieldwork concluded before those demonstrations. Junts remains politically weakened, still awaiting the return of Carles Puigdemont and unable to halt its decline in support.
Regional results and campaign dynamics
Aliança Catalana is projected to win in the Lleida and Girona constituencies, while the PSC would lead in Barcelona and Tarragona. The findings come amid a broader realignment in Catalan politics, with Aliança Catalana’s rise attributed to a surge in support for independentist right-wing voters.
Reported by en.ara.cat, ara.cat, elconfidencial.com, Europa Press, elDiario.es Catalunya.
