Metropolitan Regions to Lead Housing Expansion
A digital twin model developed by Barcelona-based firm Aretian shows that Baix Llobregat and Vallès Occidental will lead the future expansion of affordable housing in Catalonia. While Barcelona remains a key player, land scarcity limits its capacity to meet rising demand. According to the Regional Digital Twin, a data-driven urban planning tool created by urbanist Ramon Gras and his team, Catalonia faces a housing shortfall of 750,000 homes. The Barcelona metropolitan region alone accounts for nearly 500,000 of these missing units. The model identifies 50,000 vacant plots across Catalonia, each assessed using 16 variables including housing type, recommended density, and price estimates. Aretian aims to prioritise 30,000 of these plots in the metropolitan area through targeted economic development strategies.
Barcelona could in theory support 126,000 new homes, but available plots only cover 38,000 to 40,000 of them.
Barcelona's Limited Expansion Capacity
Barcelona currently has just over 16,000 residents per square kilometre and could theoretically support up to 18,000 to 19,000. Despite this, physical space restricts new construction. The city could add up to 75,139 homes by 2040, nearly double current projections, but growth will increasingly depend on surrounding municipalities. L'Hospitalet de Llobregat already exceeds optimal density in some areas, with neighbourhoods reaching 50,000 residents per square kilometre compared to a recommended 9,000.
Vallès Occidental and Baix Llobregat Take Centre Stage
Vallès Occidental emerges as the region with the greatest expansion potential, capable of accommodating between 120,620 and 193,631 new homes by 2040. Major contributors include:
- Terrassa: up to 43,935 homes
- Sant Cugat del Vallès: 35,380 homes
- Sabadell: 31,973 homes
- Rubí: 27,330 homes
- Cerdanyola del Vallès: 8,689 homes
- Montcada i Reixac: 8,646 homes
Baix Llobregat ranks second, with capacity for between 70,649 and 115,408 new homes. Growth is expected in Cornellà de Llobregat, Viladecans, Sant Boi de Llobregat, El Prat de Llobregat, and Sant Feliu de Llobregat. Protected housing is projected to concentrate in Castelldefels, Gavà, Viladecans, and Sant Boi de Llobregat. Interior municipalities like Cervelló, Vallirana, Sant Vicenç dels Horts, and Corbera de Llobregat also show significant potential.
Terrassa and Sabadell are the main centres where the affordable housing stock would increase the most.
Meanwhile, premium residential areas remain concentrated in Barcelona’s western strip, the coastal front, and the corridor towards Sant Martí, with continuity extending into Esplugues de Llobregat and Sant Cugat del Vallès. The digital twin has been shared with the Generalitat, the Diputació de Barcelona, the Àrea Metropolitana de Barcelona (AMB), and Barcelona City Council to support evidence-based planning decisions under the Pla Director Urbanístic Metropolità.
Reported by metropoliabierta.elespanol.com, barna.news, Carla Stavraky, Metrópoli Abierta - Urban Life.
