Residents in Spain could face an average annual rent increase of €217 by 2031 due to rising air tourism, according to a study by Transport and Environment (T&E) and the New Economics Foundation (NEF). The research links the surge in air arrivals to housing cost inflation, with Spain among the hardest-hit countries in Europe.
In the past seven years, a 12.8% rise in air tourists has already pushed up average home purchase prices by €3,800 and added €236 to rents, the study estimates. The forecasted further increase of €217 per year reflects ongoing airport expansion plans, including a €13 billion investment by Aena across Spain’s network between 2027 and 2031.
Barcelona and Islands Most at Risk
The expansion of El Prat airport in Barcelona, set to increase capacity from 55 million to 80 million passengers by 2033, could make Catalonia a hotspot for price hikes. The Balearic Islands, with 9.2 international tourist arrivals per resident, and the Canary Islands, with 4.9, are also highly exposed, far exceeding the EU average of 0.9 visitors per inhabitant.
Even conservative or right-wing economists should look at the complete picture of the economic impact, and not just the direct impacts.
Benefits Skew to Big Players
Alex Chapman, economist at NEF and co-author of the study, challenges claims that airport growth will broadly boost the economy. He argues that most of the projected GDP growth, such as the 97 billion euros forecast over 20 years from El Prat’s expansion, will benefit large hotel chains, not local communities.
He also warns that rising land prices could deter industrial investment, potentially costing Spain €1 billion in lost productive development. Digital nomad visas, introduced in 2023, may bring tax revenue but could worsen housing pressures.
Environmental and Social Costs Ignored
The study does not account for rent controls or social housing policies, but Chapman notes that without a strong push for affordable housing, price rises are unlikely to be reversed. Even in rent-capped areas, new leases can still reflect market hikes, discouraging mobility.
On environmental grounds, the expansion clashes with climate goals. Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) makes up only 0.8% of current fuel use, far below the 65% needed by 2050 to meet zero-emission targets. The UK expects aviation to become its top polluting sector by 2040.
Spain ranks third in projected tourism growth, behind Greece and Portugal, and second in expected rent increases, after Ireland. The findings urge policymakers to consider housing and environmental impacts in aviation planning.
Primary sources: cmcarbon, aena.es, La Moncloa. Reported by eldiario.es, Vivian Tran, euronews.com, crbcnews.com, Martina Alcobendas, Marc Toro, Núria Rius, Barcelona Catalonia, Alessio Ghirlanda, Reuters, centreforaviation.com, Joan Faus, catalannews.com, Christian Sandoval.
