Poll projects Aliança Catalana as second force

A Sigma Dos voting-intention poll published last week projects major gains for the far-right pro-independence party Aliança Catalana, while Salvador Illa’s PSC would remain largest but lose seats.

Laia Serra · 15 Sep 2026 · 2 min read

Aliança Catalana, a far-right Catalan pro-independence party led by Ripoll mayor Sílvia Orriols, would become the second-largest group in the Parliament of Catalonia if an election were held now, according to a Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo published on 10 September.

For Catalan voters, the projection suggests a more fragmented Parliament and a harder route to forming a stable government after the next election, which is expected in 2027. The poll puts the PSC, the Catalan Socialist Party led by Generalitat President Salvador Illa, first but short of the parliamentary support it secured to govern after the 2024 election.

“If elections were held today, Aliança Catalana would become the second-largest group in the Parliament of Catalonia,” the Sigma Dos poll projects.

Projected shift in parliamentary seats

According to the Sigma Dos results, Aliança Catalana would win 25–28 seats and 16.7% of the vote. It won two seats, with 3.8% of the vote, in May 2024.

The PSC would take 31–33 seats and 23.3% of the vote, down from 42 seats and 28% in 2024.
Junts would win 19–22 seats, while Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, or ERC, would take 19–21.
Vox, a Spanish far-right party, would rise from 11 seats in 2024 to an estimated 13–15, with 10.2% of the vote.

The survey says 25.8% of prospective Aliança Catalana voters previously backed Junts. It also estimates that 12.4% would come from Vox.

Government arithmetic could become more difficult

The projection would leave Illa’s current potential alliance of the PSC, ERC and the Comuns below an absolute majority, with 58 seats, according to El Mundo’s report on the survey. Aliança Catalana’s projected growth would also restore an overall pro-independence majority in the chamber.

However, El Mundo reports that all other parties maintain a political agreement not to cooperate with Aliança Catalana. That exclusion would limit the party’s ability to turn its projected seat total into influence over government formation, while making the parliamentary arithmetic more difficult.

Aliança Catalana’s polling growth is concentrated in competition for pro-independence voters. The party’s reported platform includes opposition to Muslim immigration, and the survey places it ahead of both Junts and ERC in seats despite its two-seat parliamentary presence since 2024.

The figures are a voting-intention estimate rather than an election result. The next Catalan election is expected in 2027.

Reported by russpain.com, democrata.es, elmundo.es, elnacional.cat, elconstitucional.es, en.ara.cat, elDiario.es Catalunya, elperiodico.com, abc.es, EL LIBERAL, naciodigital.cat, electografica.com.