Catalonia sees upgraded 2026 growth forecast
The Catalan economy is projected to grow by 2.6% in 2026, according to the latest macroeconomic outlook published by the Generalitat de Catalunya in October 2026. This represents an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the spring forecast, driven by strong performance in the first half of the year, with GDP expanding by 2.9% and 3.0% year-on-year in the first and second quarters respectively. Domestic demand, particularly private consumption, continues to drive growth, supported by job creation and demographic expansion. However, the rate of increase is expected to moderate compared to previous years. Full-time equivalent employment is forecast to rise by 2.0% in 2026, following a period of robust labour market growth.
Inflation and investment risks ahead
The report notes signs of slowing in some private consumption indicators, coinciding with higher inflation. Investment is identified as the most vulnerable sector to international instability, with gross capital formation expected to grow by 3.4% in 2026, down from 6% in 2025, and further decelerating to 1.8% in 2027 due to tighter financing conditions and the winding down of Next Generation EU funds. Exports of goods and services, including tourism, maintain a slightly positive trajectory despite a challenging global environment. Exports are projected to grow by 1.9% in 2026 and recover to 2.2% in 2027.
The notable dynamism of the Catalan economy has been maintained despite the energy crisis, but risks have intensified due to geopolitical tensions and financial volatility.
Gradual slowdown expected in 2027
GDP growth is forecast to moderate to 2.1% in 2027, with domestic demand remaining the primary driver. Household consumption is expected to slow to 2.1%, while government consumption and investment remain subdued. The unemployment rate is projected to stabilise around 8.4%, the lowest level since 2008, reflecting a dynamic but maturing labour market. The Generalitat highlights increased risks from the Middle East conflict, rising interest rates, eurozone economic weakness, trade competition with China, and financial instability linked to artificial intelligence investment booms.
Access the full economic report
The Macroeconomic Scenario of Catalonia 2026 and 2027 provides detailed analysis and projections based on current economic trends and policy frameworks.
Primary sources: govern.cat, Generalitat de Catalunya. Departament d'Economia i Finances, Generalitat de Catalunya, Observatori del Treball i Model Productiu. Generalitat de Catalunya. Reported by en.ara.cat.
