The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has raised its forecast for Catalonia's gross domestic product, the broad measure of economic output, from 2.2% to 2.5% in 2026. For households and businesses, the outlook points to continued growth in consumer spending and investment, although the Chamber warns that international conditions remain unstable.

According to the Chamber's quarterly economic outlook, Catalonia is continuing to create economic activity at a rate above the European Union average, even as growth has slowed in recent years.

"The international context is very volatile," said Joan Ramon Rovira, head of the Chamber's studies department, warning that forecasts can change quickly.

Consumption and investment support the revised forecast

The Chamber forecasts household consumption will rise by 2.6% in 2026, while public administration consumption is expected to increase by 2.1%.

  • Investment is forecast to grow by 4.9% over the year.
  • Exports are expected to increase by 1.9%.
  • Imports are forecast to rise by 3.9%.
  • The Chamber has raised its inflation forecast by 0.3 percentage points, to 3.3%.

Rovira described the projected investment increase as positive because it includes both housing-related activity, amid Catalonia's housing crisis, and companies' purchases of productive assets, which can raise productivity.

Employment and tourism remain key growth drivers

A separate BBVA Research outlook for Catalonia, published on 14 May and updated on 18 May 2026, forecasts 2.4% growth this year. It identifies consumption, employment, tourism, services and investment as supports for the economy.

BBVA Research expects around 175,000 new jobs to be created in Catalonia between 2025 and 2027, with the unemployment rate potentially falling to 6.8%. It also reports a rebound in foreign tourism at the start of 2026, including stronger overnight stays and visitor spending.

Both forecasts identify risks from geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainty, energy prices and pressures on goods exports. BBVA Research also cites affordable housing shortages, a lack of skilled labour and energy constraints as longer-term obstacles to growth.

Reported by Source Text Link, Leandre Ibar Penaba, Daniela Rojas, bbvaresearch.com, barna.news, Agustí Sala, Gerència de Promoció Econòmica, Gerència d'Àrea d'Economia i Promoció Econòmica, Albert Cadanet Vilà, Diari Catalunya.