PSC Still Ahead but Losing Ground

According to the most recent barometer from the Generalitat's Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), published on Wednesday 14th October 2026, the PSC would remain the largest party in a hypothetical parliamentary election, securing 21.5% of votes and between 33 and 35 seats. This marks a decline from its current 42 seats following the 2024 elections. Salvador Illa's party continues to lose ground, with vote share and projected representation both falling compared to previous polls.

Aliança Catalana Surges to Second-Place Contender

Aliança Catalana, led by Sílvia Orriols, has seen a dramatic rise in support. The CEO survey projects the party would win between 23 and 25 seats with 15% of the vote, up from just two seats in the current legislature. This positions Aliança as a strong contender for second place, closely challenging ERC, which is forecast to win between 24 and 26 seats. The shift would relegate Junts to fourth place, with support falling to between 18 and 20 deputies.

The baròmetre of the CEO reflects a clear political realignment, with the PSC maintaining the lead but ERC and Aliança Catalana fighting for second place.

Vox and PP Gain on the Right

On the non-pro-independence right, both Vox and the PP are projected to gain. The CEO data shows the PP winning 9.7% of votes and between 12 and 13 seats, down from 15 currently. Vox would rise to 9.6% and also secure 12 to 13 seats, overtaking its previous total of 11.

Ipsos Poll Shows Technical Tie

A separate poll conducted by Ipsos for La Vanguardia and published on Sunday 4th October 2026 presents an even stronger scenario for Aliança Catalana. It projects the party winning 30 seats, matching the PSC's projected total, though the socialists would still lead in vote share at 21.7% compared to Aliança’s 17.9%. In this model, ERC would follow with 23 seats, Vox would rise to 18, and Junts would fall to 16. The PP would drop to 11 seats.

No Election Imminent

Despite the shifting landscape, no regional election is currently scheduled. The next parliamentary vote is due in 2028 unless an early election is called. Both the CEO and Ipsos surveys underscore that voting intentions remain fluid and could change significantly before any ballot takes place.

Sources: ABC, Generalitat de Catalunya, El Periódico.