A new survey by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió, the Catalan government's public opinion centre known as the CEO, suggests pro-independence parties are close to regaining an absolute majority in the Parliament of Catalonia. For voters in Catalonia, that matters because it could reshape coalition options and the balance between the main nationalist parties if an election were held now.

According to reporting on the latest CEO findings, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya, or PSC, the Catalan Socialist party, would still finish first. But the poll also points to a stronger independence bloc overall and a notable advance for Aliança Catalana, a far-right pro-independence party that has become a growing factor in the contest between Junts and Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, or ERC.

The director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, said in an earlier CEO briefing that there was a "technical tie" between ERC and Junts.

Poll figures show a tight race behind PSC

In the CEO poll published during the 2024 Catalan election campaign, the PSC was projected to win between 40 and 47 seats, up from the 33 it won in 2021, according to ARA's report on the survey. In that same poll, ERC was placed on 31 to 37 seats and Junts on 28 to 34, leaving the two pro-independence parties competing for second place.

That survey also showed the CUP on between 4 and 8 seats and Aliança Catalana on 0 to 2, meaning the pro-independence bloc could reach an absolute majority but was not guaranteed to do so. A separate CEO barometer published earlier in the year, with fieldwork carried out from 9 February to 7 March, also put the PSC ahead on 35 to 42 seats, with ERC on 26 to 32 and Junts on 24 to 29.

  • PSC: 40 to 47 seats in the CEO campaign poll cited by ARA
  • ERC: 31 to 37 seats
  • Junts: 28 to 34 seats
  • CUP: 4 to 8 seats
  • Aliança Catalana: 0 to 2 seats

For readers trying to follow the stakes, the key threshold is an absolute majority in the 135-seat chamber. The CEO-based reporting says the independence parties were within reach of that line, but not securely over it.

CEO briefing pointed to lower sovereignist mobilisation

The CEO findings cited by ARA also said voter mobilisation patterns could affect the final result. In that briefing, Jordi Muñoz said the survey detected a higher level of mobilisation among non-sovereignist voters than in other Catalan elections, while participation forecasts for pro-independence voters had been adjusted downward.

ARA reported that 39% of respondents were still undecided two weeks before the election in that campaign-period poll. It also said 21% of Catalans were hesitating between ERC and the PSC, 20% between ERC and Junts, 12% between ERC and the CUP, and 10% between ERC and the commons.

That helps explain why the poll was read not just as a snapshot of party strength, but as a warning that turnout could decide whether the independence bloc crosses the majority line.

Aliança Catalana's growth is changing the contest

The latest reporting linked to the CEO says Aliança Catalana has continued to gain ground and has already moved ahead of Junts in at least one recent poll reading. That rise adds pressure to the traditional pro-independence parties, especially in a fragmented bloc where a small shift in seats can change whether a majority is possible.

The source material provided here does not include the full numerical breakdown from the 9 July 2026 ARA article, but it does identify the central finding: Aliança Catalana had overtaken Junts in that CEO-based report. That is the specific basis for saying the party's growth is altering alliances and increasing tensions among the established parties.

For residents and voters, the practical next step is to follow the next official CEO publication and party lists as they are released, because the remaining undecided vote and seat distribution between ERC, Junts, the CUP and Aliança Catalana could determine whether any pro-independependence majority is workable.

Reported by Source Text Link, russpain.com, Aleix Moldes, Mireia Esteve, catalannews.com, Euractiv, Xavi Tedó, Ot Serra, Asbel Bohigues, Editorial.