The PSC, the Partit dels Socialistes de Catalunya or Catalan Socialist party, would win another Catalan parliamentary election if voting were held now, according to the latest barometer from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), the Generalitat's public opinion institute. For residents, that matters because the poll points to a Parliament with broadly similar balances to the current one, and it suggests any future government would still depend on post-election deals rather than a clear outright majority.

The CEO survey, published on 18 July, gives the PSC 39 to 45 seats in the 135-seat Parliament. Junts per Catalunya would be second on 31 to 36 seats, ahead of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya, or ERC, on 19 to 24. The fieldwork was carried out between 10 June and 8 July using 2,000 interviews, according to RTVE's report of the barometer.

"El PSC s'imposaria a les eleccions al Parlament amb entre 39 i 45 escons," RTVE reported from the CEO barometer.

That range means the PSC remains below the 68 seats needed for an absolute majority on its own. The same poll says a possible left-leaning bloc led by the Socialists, with ERC and Comuns Sumar, could reach 63 to 77 seats, which would put a majority within reach at the top end of the estimate.

Junts stays second, while smaller parties retain seats

Behind the top three, the CEO poll places the Partido Popular, or PP, on 13 to 18 seats and Vox on 7 to 11. Comuns Sumar would win 5 to 8 seats, while the CUP, the pro-independence left-wing party Candidatura d'Unitat Popular, would take 1 to 6. Aliança Catalana would also enter Parliament with 1 to 4 seats.

  • PSC: 39–45 seats
  • Junts: 31–36 seats
  • ERC: 19–24 seats
  • PP: 13–18 seats
  • Vox: 7–11 seats
  • Comuns Sumar: 5–8 seats
  • CUP: 1–6 seats
  • Aliança Catalana: 1–4 seats

For voters following independence politics, the poll also points to a weaker position for the main separatist parties if Aliança Catalana is excluded. RTVE said the pro-independence bloc without Aliança Catalana would total between 51 and 66 seats, short of the 68 needed for a majority.

Support for independence drops to 40%

The same CEO barometer says 53% of respondents oppose Catalan independence, while 40% support it. RTVE reported that this is the highest share in favour of remaining part of Spain recorded by the CEO since it began asking the question in this format in 2015.

That marks a two-point change from the previous barometer in both directions, with opposition up and support down. For residents, it is a sign that the constitutional question remains central to party politics, but with less public backing for secession than in earlier CEO surveys.

Illa seen as the most likely next president

The barometer also asked who is most likely to end up as president of the Generalitat, the Catalan government. According to RTVE, 65% named PSC leader Salvador Illa, compared with 14% for Junts leader Carles Puigdemont. A further 8% said neither of the two would lead the Catalan executive before the deadline for an investiture runs out.

An earlier CEO pre-election poll in April had also put the PSC in first place, though with a different order below it. That survey, cited by EL PAÍS and Público, gave the PSC 40 to 47 seats, ERC 31 to 37, and Junts 28 to 34, based on 1,500 telephone interviews carried out between 11 and 22 April.

Reported by Source Text Link, catalannews.com, B. Gálvez, Camilo S. Baquero, Ona Falcó, electografica.com, Beatriz Gálvez Garcés, Mireia Esteve, José Á. Carpio, Aleix Moldes, notimerica.com, Por Lydia Hernández Téllez Agregar Infobae en Agrega Infobae a tus medios preferidos en Google, Xavi Tedó, Diari ARA.